Saturday, 31 March 2018

My best shot at - Brexit


While reading news about the Brexit, the current uncertainty about the NAFTA (North America Free Trade Agreement) and the TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership) one thing crossed my mind:

Economies of Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the UK, combined together, would be the third largest economy in the world!

All four mentioned countries are well respected and highly regarded in International community, but none of them has the economic weight to play a leading role in global affairs. Taken alone they are all junior partners.

So the Brexit may be the perfect opportunity for those countries to renew old ties and position themselves for the challenges of the 21st century.

Let us look at what they have in common:

  • The same head of state
  • Almost the same culture
  • Almost the same judicial system
  • Similar labour laws
  • Similar universal health care
  • Similar education
  • Similar stardand of living
  • Similar social policies
  • Similar inland revenue system
  • The same language - Their citizens can all speak Earthish (Earthish is how I call English that  someone who doesn't live in your street can understand.)
  • And list goes on...
In addition, all four counties are allies or members of the same military alliances (e.g. NATO) and actively exchange data and cooperate in defense, intelligence gathering, national security and efforts to combat terrorism, organized crime, human trafficking etc.

If these four countries, that have so much in common, form a united block of sovereign countries, that block  (for which I have no good name yet) would be an entity to recon with. Surely, all old treaties should and would have to be honored, but any new negotiation entered as the united block, would be from far more favorable position than any of the countries taken alone. In other words, if acting as a united block, those four would be taken more seriously by the international community.

Under the umbrella of monarchy, this block could and should form a common market, with unhindered trade of goods and services, and movement of workforce.


These could be the guiding principles of the new block:

  • Each country is independent and sovereign entity and it is guaranteed by the common head of state - the Monarch.
  • The countries form  a singe free market. It is independent on any other free trade agreement the members may have. 
  • Each country has its own currency, Central Bank, and monetary and fiscal policy
  • All four countries mutually agree by consensus when and how to act as a single block, and when not. 
  • For each decision regarding the block policy, countries must have backing of the ruling party and the opposition. The decisions must be national and not partisan in order to ensure the continuity of the common policies and obligations. 
  • No rules or laws will ever be imposed or forced on any of the members.
  • Each country will have its own immigration policy, but are encouraged to allow free flow of their citizens among them on the principle of reciprocity.
Who would make the first move?

Even though the UK is the largest economy among four, the first initiative cannot come from
London. On 1 January 1973 British Prime Minister Edward Heath said:
"And this will enable us to be more efficient and more competitive in gaining more markets not only in Europe but in the rest of the world."
It was the day when Britain officially joined EEC. What he missed to say was that Britain was about to severely cut the strong and long lasting ties with her own kin.  Therefore Britain does not have any moral grounds to reach back now when she's leaving the EU and trying to find her place in the world.The best candidate to make this move and amalgamate the new block would be Canada. Here is why:
  • Canada has deep sea ports on Atlantic Ocean (connecting it to Britain) and Pacific Ocean (connecting it to Australia and New Zealand), and the long coast on the Arctic Sea and the Northwest Passage. It shares the 5000 kilometers long border with the USA. The geographic/geostrategic position alone would be reason good enough for Canada to spearhead the initiative. 
  • Canada is another G7 country.
  • Canada maintains to be one of the pillars of security of the developed world (to name NATO and NORAD for starter), but yet it manages to have good and friendly economic and other relationships with major emerging powers like China and India. 
  • Canada is the biggest trading partner of the USA, the biggest economy and the largest single market.
  • Canada has numerous friends around the world and virtually no enemies. The country is even higher regarded abroad than by her own citizens. This is simply the testament of prudent  and continuous foreign policy carried out by numerous accomplished diplomats  for a very long time, but also the evidence of the culture of respect and cooperation. 

Since World War II the USA plaid the leading role in defending and promoting democratic values and liberty, providing the invaluable contribution to security and stability of the free world. But in last decade or so, the differences in the American society and politics deepened and the rift between factions is becoming wider. The Americans are more and more focused on their own problems and the administration often paralyzed by partisanship and political bickering. This makes the future, and even more importantly, the direction of the American leading role uncertain. It is simply imprudent to just wait until the Americans come to their senses. EU is also too diverse and neither able to form a common foreign policy on almost every single issue, nor to solve crisis in its near abroad, let alone to take a leading role in complex and expensive world affairs. Furthermore EU is riddled with several fault lines regarding sovereignty, national debt and fiscal discipline of its members, migrants and immigration policy and many more.  There are good reasons why the UK is leaving that chaotic and inefficient organization.

Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the UK, tied together, would not have the same gravity pool that the USA and the EU have; but they would be able to come to common principles on important matters more easily, and be more nimble and adaptable. They would provide stability and support to each other and be less vulnerable to external forces and events that they cannot control.

This is my best shot. Thank you for reading